The first international Global Warming and Wine conference was held on March 24-25 in Barcelona, Spain. Following a welcome speech by host Pancho Campo of the Wine Academy of Spain-urging the gathered 100 or so academics, winemakers and journalists to spread the word about the issues surrounding global warming and climate change-the conference officially began with a discussion by Professor Bernard Seguin, a climate change specialist with France's INRA (National Institute for Agricultural Research).

"Climate change is natural; a greenhouse effect is natural, and it is increasing only at a small level," said Seguin. "We can see the consequences not with our eyes so much as with statistical models," tracing the influence of man upon climate from the 19th century's industrial age. Seguin asserted that the hand of man, via the conversion of forest to arable land and the increase of animal husbandry, initiated a rise in methane gas levels in our atmosphere, which preceded the industrial age. This has paved the way for a rise in carbon dioxide levels, although from the beginning of the 20th century there's been a very slight, approximately 1 degree, warming.

"If you increase carbon dioxide (CO₂), you increase the rate of photosynthesis. If the phenology of budburst shifts, it will affect the end quality; veraison will begin in the beginning of July." Seguin concluded that total warming is greater over continents, hence, the greater effect upon the Northern Hemisphere vs. the Southern Hemisphere. Western Europe winter warming will increase 1 to 2 degrees in France and Spain, 3 to 4 in summer, excepting Portugal: "It will be difficult to survive in central Spain."

Seguin noted that Alsace has seen a rise in alcohol level of 2 degrees Celsius over the past three decades, with harvest shifting from October 1 to September 1. Projections for France by the end of the 21st century have three weeks more advanced maturing than what we see currently. With increasingly milder winters, dormancy will begin earlier as will the ripening rate. Oceanic events, such as the slowing of the Gulf Stream, will have a greater impact upon global warming than atmospheric events (such as the emission of greenhouse gases).

What Seguin did make clear is that there's no turning back: "If we emit less, there will be more warming; if we emit more, there will be more warming," he warned.

Sorting out the increase

Seguin's view was echoed by other speakers, including Dr. Xavier Sort of Torres Estates who demonstrated the far greater impact of continued climate change upon his native Catalonia compared to California. "A 1.5-6.2 degree increase is expected for Catalonia, with a great deal of heterogeneity appropriate to a widely varying topography and climate. This region will have a widening variance based upon the season: winter and summer will see greater change than spring and autumn."

Using four different map indices to demonstrate, Sort showed climate change in Catalonia from 2000 to 2100. Most showed that the two-thirds of the region located closest to the coast will have a high increase in temperatures. In spring there would be no drop in temperature while there will be a reduction in the number of total rainfall days and concentrate, yet a similar rainfall total in fewer days. This effect would lead to an increase in floods and, subsequently, erosion. The initial vegetation period would advance by one to two months. With a greater water deficit for an area already suffering, Sort recommended high-efficiency irrigation systems in areas not currently being irrigated.

To this, president of the Spanish Federation of Enology Associations, Vincente Sanchez, implored, "I'm concerned about the rise in temperature but also about the control of water. That's the major problem we face: we'll have to distribute it fairly." Castilla-La Mancha, the region Sanchez is from, is in danger of fast becoming a desert: the area has experienced severe drought conditions for three years. Urging that this may be a way to increase grape quality, he said, "It's not profitable any longer to over-water as in years past if we want to grow high-quality grapes. From an oenological point of view, we'll have to use technological methods useful for Europe and not the New World. Reverse osmosis to remove ethanol may or may not be an advantage, but it's better to make decisions in the vineyard to solve this problem.

"Climate change will lead to a 15 percent depletion of water resources around 2030 if we consider only a 1 degree increase," Sanchez added. "With a 2.5 degree increase of temperature, there will be a 17 percent depletion of water by 2060 and an 8 percent drop in overall wine production." Sanchez cited the factor of population growth having tripled in the past four decades as impoverishing the earth, and that the poorer regions of the world are those least prepared yet most affected by global warming. "If we manage to get the U.S. (the leading contributor to greenhouse gases) to ratify the Kyoto Protocol tomorrow, we'll still see the effects from before this for another 150 years." He argued that 2 percent of the gross domestic product of developed countries and 5 percent of undeveloped countries will have to be allocated to the adaptation of climate change in order to adequately stave off its effects. "Solutions must be applied today so that our grandchildren benefit," he concluded.

ABOVE: The climate-maturity groupings given in this figure are based on relationships between phenological requirements and climate for high to premium quality wine production in the world's benchmark regions for each variety. The dashed line at the end of the bars indicates that some adjustments may occur as more data become available, but changes of more than +/- 0.5-1.0°F are highly unlikely. The figure and the research behind it are a work in progress and are used with permission of the author, Dr. Gregory V. Jones.

Water and bugs

In general, there will be a local adaptation by each environment, a possibility for planting new varieties in regions not previously suitable. Varieties only grown 500km south of a region may be possibly planted further north. Bordeaux will resemble Valencia, Burgundy will resemble Bordeaux, southern England will resemble Champagne, etc.

Dr. Richard Smart, in what could be construed as an alarmist tone, cited the presence in southern Germany of the pest hyalestes obsoletus (a vector for Bois Noir phytoplasma disease) as an example of the effects of climate change. Research of this has shown that 30 percent of vines will be symptomatic in the second year of exposure, providing no yield. Smart also discussed the presence of the multicolored Asian Lady Beetle in Ontario, the U.S. Midwest and all along the eastern U.S. seaboard. Introduced as a method of aphid control on soybeans, this bug taints wine with methoxypyrazines. According to Smart, it "breeds like crazy" and may now be found in Italy, Belgium and the U.K. His suggestions included planting Petit Verdot, Graciano, Durif, Vermentino, Viognier, Verdelho and Verdejo in the predicted "very hot" regions of central Spain and southwest France.

Taking the Old World to task vs. the New World, Smart claimed that although Bordeaux vignerons boast that their Cabernet is the best in the world, this region is climatically beginning to resemble his native Australia's Riverland district's Cabernet Sauvignon. Taking on Australia itself, Smart added that as temperatures rise over the next few decades in the Murray River region-which accounts for over 50 percent of Australia's bulk winegrapes-grape growing may become untenable.

Carlos Falco, owner of the Marques de Grinon estate and who studied with Professor Irwin Winkler at the University of California-Davis, speculated, "In the midterm, if we lose the Gulf stream, this may mean that both Spain and Bordeaux could become cooler rather than warmer."

With the rise of salinity in freshwater tables, the ability to irrigate will be a growing problem in Europe. Professor Christian Butzke of Purdue University suggests planting varieties more suitable for the different climatic conditions, varieties such as Grenache and Syrah in Bordeaux. If there's only a 1 degree Celsius increase in the earth's temperature, climate change will lead to a 15 percent depletion of water resources around 2030, a 2.5 degree Celsius increase of temperature and 17 percent depletion by 2060, and an 8 percent drop in overall production.

Adam Lechmere, editor of Decanter magazine, drove the point home by suggesting that although, "wine's positive connection with the land is a strong element of its selling point, both New Zealand and Australia have and still are playing massively upon this. However, four billion liters of water per year are consumed for wine production in Australia alone."

Terrorists in Our Midst

David Smart of the Department of Viticulture & Oenology at UC Davis stated, "Global temperatures have increased 0.15 degree Celsius per decade in the 20th century, more in Catalonia," and that both minimum and maximum temperatures in Europe are increasing. He suggested that the choice of rootstock will be a factor in the rate of fermentation, with possible solutions as:

1. Influence of global climate change on terrestrial evapotranspiration uncertain.

2. Increased frequency of anomalous precipitation events can increase decertification of Iberia.

3. Yields (and quality?) are highly sensitive to seasonality of precipitation and heat waves.

4. We need to further explore the role of rootstocks in response to climate change.

Half-jokingly, Richard Smart encouraged people to move to his native Australia "because the situation, as Bernard Seguin suggested, will be that global warming may not affect the southern hemisphere so much as the northern." He challenged the audience to "Fight the war on terror," characterizing terrorist nations as those polluting the Earth's atmosphere with no regard for other countries, and for individuals to act responsibly as global citizens. Political solutions were also taken to task by Lechmere, who quipped, "Getting governments to do something for a long-term solution when administrations are modeled on four- to five-year terms of service is difficult."

Dr. Greg Jones, climatologist with Southern Oregon University and a winemaker himself, added that public recognition of the problems facing us remains a challenge. "Governments don't always have a solution for our problems...and Hollywood won't make a movie about gradual climate change."

Campo concluded the conference by exhorting the assembled to "spread the word about what you've learned here. It might not help sell wine today, but global warming will bite us all in the ass in 20 years' time." wbm

Note: For more information about this and other Wine Academy of Spain conferences, contact Javier Arauz at jarauz@thewineacademy.com. Campo's Wine Academy of Spain plans to host another conference on global warming in two years. Next year they will host a conference on bottle closures.